I-30% yombane wehlabathi uvela kumandla ahlaziyekayo, kwaye i-China ibe negalelo elikhulu

Uphuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi lufikelela kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo.

Nge-8 kaMeyi, ngokwengxelo yamva nje evela kwitanki yokucinga yamandla ehlabathi i-Ember: Ngo-2023, ngenxa yokukhula kwelanga nomoya.

ukuveliswa kwamandla, ukuveliswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kuya kwenza i-30% engazange ibonwe ngaphambili yokuveliswa kwamandla ehlabathi.

Unyaka ka-2023 unokuba yindawo ephawulekayo yokutshintsha xa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kushishino lwamandla kuphezulu.

“Ikamva lamandla ahlaziyekayo sele lifikile.Amandla elanga, ngokukodwa, aqhubela phambili ngokukhawuleza kunokuba nabani na wayecinga.Izinto ezikhutshwayo

ukusuka kwicandelo lamandla kulindeleke ukuba linyuke ngo-2023 - eyona nto ibalulekileyo kwimbali yamandla."Intloko ye-Ember Global of Insights uDave Jones uthe.

U-Yang Muyi, umhlalutyi wemigaqo-nkqubo yamandla aphezulu e-Ember, uthe okwangoku, uninzi lokuvelisa amandla omoya kunye nelanga lugxile

China kunye noqoqosho oluphuhlileyo.Kufanelekile ukukhankanya ukuba i-China iya kwenza igalelo elikhulu kumoya wehlabathi kunye

Ukukhula kokuveliswa kwamandla elanga ngo-2023. Ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga olutsha kubalele i-51% yetotali yehlabathi, kunye nomoya wayo omtsha.

amandla abalelwa kuma-60%.Umthamo wamandla elanga nawomoya waseTshayina kunye nokukhula kokuveliswa kombane kuya kuhlala kumanqanaba aphezulu

kwiminyaka ezayo.

Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba eli lithuba elingazange libonwe kumazwe akhetha ukuba phambili ekucoceni.

amandla kwixesha elizayo.Ukwandiswa kwamandla acocekileyo akuyi kunceda kuphela i-decarbonize icandelo lamandla kuqala, kodwa nokubonelela ngokunyuka

unikezelo olufunekayo ukufaka umbane kuqoqosho lonke, oluya kuba namandla okuguqula ngokwenene kumlo ochasene nokutshintsha kwemozulu.

Phantse i-40% yombane wehlabathi uvela kwimithombo yamandla enekhabhoni ephantsi

Ingxelo ye-"2024 Global Electricity Review" ekhutshwe ngu-Ember isekelwe kwiiseti zedatha zamazwe amaninzi (kuquka idatha evela kwi

I-Arhente yezaMandla yaMazwe ngaMazwe, i-Eurostat, iZizwe eziManyeneyo kunye namasebe ahlukeneyo esizwe manani), ebonelela a

Isishwankathelo esibanzi senkqubo yamandla ehlabathi ngo-2023. Ingxelo ibandakanya amazwe amakhulu angama-80 kwihlabathi jikelele,

Ibalelwa kwi-92% yemfuno yombane yehlabathi, kunye nedatha yembali kumazwe angama-215.

Ngokwengxelo, ngo-2023, ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla elanga kunye nomoya, ukuveliswa kwamandla avuselelekayo kwihlabathi jikelele.

iya kwenza ngaphezu kwe-30% okokuqala.Phantse i-40% yombane wehlabathi uvela kwimithombo yamandla enekhabhoni ephantsi,

kuquka amandla enyukliya.Ubunzulu be-CO2 bokuveliswa kombane kwihlabathi jikelele bufikelele kwirekhodi eliphantsi, i-12% ngaphantsi kwencopho yalo ngo-2007.

Amandla elanga ngowona mthombo wokukhula kombane ngo-2023 kunye nokugqwesa kuphuhliso lwamandla ahlaziyekayo.Ngo-2023,

amandla okuvelisa amandla elanga amatsha ehlabathi aya kuba ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabini kunalawo amalahle.Amandla elanga agcina indawo yawo

njengowona mthombo ukhula ngokukhawuleza wombane kunyaka we-19 ngokulandelelana kwaye wadlula umoya njengowona mthombo mkhulu

umbane kunyaka wesibini ngokulandelelana.Ngo-2024, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha.

Ingxelo yaphawula ukuba amandla okucoca okongeziweyo ngo-2023 bekuya kuba kwanele ukunciphisa imveliso yombane wefosili

nge-1.1%.Nangona kunjalo, iimeko zembalela kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi kulo nyaka uphelileyo zinyanzelise ukuveliswa kombane ngamanzi

ukuya kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi kwiminyaka emihlanu.Ukushokoxeka kumbane owenziwe ngamanzi wenziwe kukonyuka kokuveliswa kwamalahle, okuthe kwenzeka

ikhokelele ekunyukeni kwe-1% kukukhutshwa kwecandelo lamandla ehlabathi.Ngo-2023, ama-95% okukhula kokuveliswa kwamandla amalahle kuya kwenzeka kwizine

amazwe achatshazelwe kakhulu yimbalela: iChina, iIndiya, iVietnam neMexico.

U-Yang Muyi uthe njengoko ihlabathi lifaka ukubaluleka okukhulayo kwinjongo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, uninzi lwezoqoqosho olusakhulayo.

zikwanyusa isantya kwaye zizama ukubamba.IBrazil ingumzekelo obalaseleyo.Ilizwe, ngokwembali lixhomekeke kumbane,

isebenze kakhulu ekuguquleni iindlela zayo zokuvelisa amandla kwiminyaka yakutshanje.Kunyaka ophelileyo, umoya kunye namandla elanga

ibalelwe kuma-21% okuveliswa kombane eBrazil, xa kuthelekiswa ne-3.7% kuphela ngowama-2015.

I-Afrika ikwanamandla amakhulu angasetyenziswanga acocekileyo njengoko ilikhaya kwisihlanu sabemi behlabathi kwaye inelanga elikhulu

enokwenzeka, kodwa ummandla ngoku utsala kuphela i-3% yotyalo-mali lwamandla ehlabathi.

Ngokwembono yemfuno yamandla, imfuno yombane kwihlabathi iya kunyuka iye kwirekhodi ephezulu ngo-2023, kunye nokonyuka

627TWh, ilingana nemfuno yonke yaseCanada.Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kwehlabathi ngo-2023 (2.2%) kungaphantsi komndilili kutsha nje

iminyaka, ngenxa yokwehla okuphawulweyo kwemfuno kumazwe e-OECD, ngakumbi i-United States (-1.4%) kunye neYurophu yaseYurophu.

Umanyano (-3.4%).Ngokwahlukileyo, imfuno e-China yakhula ngokukhawuleza (+ 6.9%).

Ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sokukhula kwemfuno yombane ngo-2023 kuya kuvela kwiiteknoloji ezintlanu: izithuthi zombane, iimpompo zokushisa,

electrolysers, air conditioning kunye namaziko data.Ukusasazeka kobu buchwepheshe kuya kukhawulezisa imfuno yombane

ukukhula, kodwa ngenxa yokuba ukufakelwa kombane kusebenza ngakumbi kunamafutha efosili, imfuno yamandla iyonke iya kuwa.

Nangona kunjalo, ingxelo ikwaveze ukuba ngokukhawuleziswa kokufakelwa kombane, uxinzelelo oluziswa bubuchwepheshe.

njengobukrelekrele bokwenziwa buyanda, kwaye imfuno yesikhenkcisi iye yanda ngakumbi.Kulindeleke ukuba

imfuno iya kukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo, eliphakamisa umbuzo wombane ococekileyo.Ngaba izinga lokukhula lingadibana ne

ukukhula kwimfuno yombane?

Umba obalulekileyo ekukhuleni kwemfuno yombane kukupholisa umoya, okuya kubalelwa malunga ne-0.3%

wokusetyenziswa kombane kwihlabathi ngo-2023. Ukususela ngo-2000, izinga lokukhula kwawo ngonyaka lizinzile kwi-4% (yenyuka ukuya kwi-5% ngo-2022).

Nangona kunjalo, ukungasebenzi kakuhle kuhlala kungumngeni omkhulu kuba, ngaphandle komsantsa omncinci weendleko, uninzi lwee-air conditioners zithengisiwe

kwihlabathi jikelele sisiqingatha kuphela esisebenza ngokufanelekileyo njengobuchwepheshe besimanje.

Amaziko eenkcukacha adlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuqhubeni imfuno yehlabathi, enegalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwemfuno yombane

I-2023 njenge-air conditioning (+90 TWh, + 0.3%).Ngomndilili wokukhula kwemfuno yamandla yonyaka kula maziko ifikelela phantse

I-17% ukususela ngo-2019, ukuphumeza iinkqubo zokupholisa ezisemgangathweni kunokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kwiziko ledatha ubuncinane ngama-20%.

U-Yang Muyi uthe ukujamelana nokukhula kwemfuno yamandla yenye yeengxaki ezinkulu ezijongene nokutshintsha kwamandla ehlabathi.

Ukuba uthatha ingqalelo imfuno eyongezelelweyo eya kuvela kwishishini le-decarbonizing ngokusebenzisa umbane, umbane

ukukhula kwemfuno kuya kuba phezulu ngakumbi.Ukuze umbane ococekileyo uhlangabezane nemfuno ekhulayo yombane, kukho izithinteli ezimbini eziphambili:

ukukhawulezisa ukukhula kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kuwo wonke umxokelelwano wexabiso (ingakumbi kwiindawo ezivelayo

amashishini eteknoloji anemfuno ephezulu yombane).

Ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kubaluleke kakhulu ekuhlangabezaneni nemfuno ekhulayo yamandla acocekileyo.KwiMozulu yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yama-28

INkomfa yoTshintsho eDubai, iinkokeli zehlabathi zithembise ukuphinda kabini ukuphuculwa kwamandla onyaka ngo-2030. Oku

ukuzibophelela kubalulekile ekwakheni ikamva elicocekileyo lombane njengoko kuya kunciphisa uxinzelelo kwigridi.

Ixesha elitsha lokuhla kokukhutshwa kokukhutshwa kombane kwishishini lamandla liya kuqalisa

U-Ember uqikelela ukwehla okuncinci kokuveliswa kwamandla efosili ngo-2024, okubangela ukwehla okukhulu kwiminyaka elandelayo.

Ukukhula kwemfuno ngo-2024 kulindeleke ukuba kuphakame ngaphezu kwe-2023 (+968 TWh), kodwa ukukhula kokuveliswa kwamandla acocekileyo

kulindeleke ukuba ibenkulu (+1300 TWh), ibe negalelo ekwehleni kwe-2% ekuveliseni amafutha efosili yehlabathi (-333 TWh).Kulindelwe

Ukukhula kombane ococekileyo kunikeze abantu ithemba lokuba ixesha elitsha lokuhla kokukhutshwa kombane kwicandelo lamandla li

malunga nokuqalisa.

Kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo, ukuthunyelwa kokuveliswa kwamandla acocekileyo, okukhokelwa ngamandla elanga nawomoya, kuye kwacothisa ukukhula.

ukuveliswa kwamandla efosili malunga nesibini kwisithathu.Ngenxa yoko, ukuveliswa kwamandla efosili kwisiqingatha soqoqosho lwehlabathi

yadlula incopho yayo kwiminyaka emihlanu eyadlulayo.Amazwe e-OECD ahamba phambili, ngokukhutshwa kombane ngokupheleleyo

inyuke ngo-2007 kwaye yehla ngama-28% ukusukela ngoko.

Kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo, utshintsho lwamandla luya kungena kwinqanaba elitsha.Okwangoku, ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili kwicandelo lamandla ehlabathi

ibopheleleke ukuba iqhubeleke nokuhla, okukhokelela kukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo ezisezantsi ezivela kwicandelo.Kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo, ukwanda kokucoceka

Umbane, okhokelwa yilanga nomoya, kulindeleke ukuba udlule ukukhula kwemfuno yamandla kwaye unciphise ngokufanelekileyo ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili.

kunye nezinto ezikhutshwayo.

Oku kubalulekile ekuphumezeni iinjongo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kumazwe ngamazwe.Uhlalutyo oluninzi lufumene ukuba icandelo lombane

kufuneka ibe ngabokuqala ukwenza i-decarbonise, ngolu thagethi lumiselwe ukuba luphunyezwe ngo-2035 kumazwe e-OECD nango-2045

lonke ihlabathi.

Icandelo lamandla okwangoku lineyona ndawo iphezulu yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kulo naliphi na ishishini, ivelisa ngaphezulu kwesithathu sezinto ezinxulumene namandla

Ukukhutshwa kweCO2.Ayinako kuphela ukucoca umbane endaweni yamafutha efosili asetyenziswa ngoku kwiinjini zeemoto neebhasi, iibhoyila, iziko.

kunye nezinye izicelo, kukwangundoqo ekuthuthweni kwe-decarbonizing, ukufudumeza kunye namashishini amaninzi.Ukukhawulezisa inguqu

toa Uqoqosho olucocekileyo olunombane oluqhutywa ngumoya, ilanga kunye neminye imithombo yamandla acocekileyo iya kukhuthaza uqoqosho ngaxeshanye

ukukhula, ukwandisa ingqesho, ukuphucula umgangatho womoya kunye nokwandisa amandla okulawula, ukufumana izibonelelo ezininzi.

Kwaye ngokukhawuleza ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo kuya kuxhomekeka kwindlela okwakhiwa ngayo ngokukhawuleza amandla acocekileyo.Ihlabathi lifikelele kwimvumelwano nge

iplani yamabhongo efunekayo ukunciphisa izinto ezikhutshwayo.KwiNkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yoTshintsho lweMozulu (COP28) ngoDisemba ophelileyo,

Iinkokeli zehlabathi zifikelele kwisivumelwano esiyimbali sokuphinda kathathu amandla okuvelisa amandla ahlaziyekayo kwihlabathi ngowama-2030.

Isabelo sehlabathi sombane ohlaziyekayo siye kuma-60% ngowama-2030, phantse sibe sisiqingatha ukukhutshwa kombane ovela kushishino lwamandla.Iinkokeli nazo

kuvunyelwene kwi-COP28 ukuphinda kabini ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla ngonyaka ngo-2030, nto leyo ibalulekileyo ekuqondeni amandla apheleleyo okufakelwa kombane.

kunye nokuphepha ukukhula okungekho mthethweni kwimfuno yombane.

Ngelixa ukuveliswa kwamandla omoya kunye nelanga kukhula ngokukhawuleza, ukugcinwa kwamandla kunye nobuchwepheshe begridi bunokuhlala njani?Xa i

Umlinganiselo wokuveliswa kwamandla ahlaziyiweyo uyanda ngakumbi, indlela yokuqinisekisa uzinzo nokuthembeka kwamandla

isizukulwana?U-Yang Muyi uthe ukudibanisa isixa esikhulu samandla avuselelekayo kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla okuguquguqukayo kwi

inkqubo yamandla Ucwangciso olululo kunye noqhagamshelo lwegridi luyafuneka, kugxilwe kububhetyebhetye benkqubo yamandla.Ukuba bhetyebhetye

iba yimfuneko ekulinganiseni igridi xa isizukulwana esixhomekeke kwimozulu, esifana nomoya kunye nelanga, sidlula okanye sisiwa.

ngaphantsi kwemfuno yamandla.

Ukwandisa ukuguquguquka kwenkqubo yamandla kubandakanya ukuphumeza uluhlu lwezicwangciso, kubandakanywa nokwakhiwa kweendawo zokugcina amandla,

ukomeleza iziseko zoncedo lwegridi, ukwenza nzulu uhlaziyo lwemarike yombane, kunye nokukhuthaza intatho-nxaxheba yemfuno ebangwayo.

Ulungelelwaniso lwemimandla enqamlezileyo lubaluleke ngokukodwa ukuqinisekisa ukwabelana ngokufanelekileyo kwe-spare kunye nomthamo oshiyekileyo kunye

imimandla ekufutshane.Oku kuya kunciphisa imfuno yomthamo wendawo ogqithisileyo.Umzekelo, i-Indiya iphumeza ukudityaniswa kweemarike

iindlela zokuqinisekisa ukusasazwa ngokufanelekileyo kokuveliswa kombane kumaziko emfuno, ukukhuthaza igridi ezinzileyo kunye

ukusetyenziswa ngokupheleleyo kwamandla ahlaziyekayo ngeendlela zentengiso.

Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba ngelixa ezinye i-smart grid kunye neetekhnoloji zebhetri sele zihambele phambili kakhulu kwaye zisetyenziselwe

gcina uzinzo lokuvelisa amandla acocekileyo, uphando olongezelelweyo kwiiteknoloji zokugcina ixesha elide lusafuneka

ukomeleza ukusebenza kunye nocikizeko lweenkqubo zamandla acocekileyo kwixesha elizayo.

I-China idlala indima ebalulekileyo

Uhlalutyo lwengxelo lubonisa ukuba ukukhawulezisa uphuhliso lwamandla ahlaziyekayo: urhulumente onebhongo eliphezulu.

iinjongo, iindlela zenkuthazo, izicwangciso eziguquguqukayo kunye nezinye izinto eziphambili zinokukhuthaza ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwelanga kunye nomoya

ukuveliswa kwamandla.

Ingxelo igxile ekuhlalutyeni imeko yase-China: I-China idlala indima ebalulekileyo ekukhuthazeni inguqu yamandla kwihlabathi.

I-China yinkokeli yehlabathi kukuveliswa kwamandla omoya kunye nelanga, enesona sizukulwana sigqibeleleyo kwaye siphezulu ngonyaka

ukukhula kwiminyaka engaphezu kweshumi.Yandisa ukuveliswa kwamandla omoya kunye nelanga ngesantya esiphezulu, ukuguqula i

eyona nkqubo yamandla yehlabathi.Ngo-2023 kuphela, i-China iya kuba negalelo elingaphezu kwesiqingatha somoya omtsha wehlabathi kunye namandla elanga

ukuveliswa, kubalelwa kwi-37% yokuveliswa kwamandla elanga nomoya.

Ukukhula kwezinto ezikhutshwayo ezivela kwicandelo lamandla laseTshayina kuye kwacotha kule minyaka idlulileyo.Ukususela ngo-2015, ukukhula kumoya kunye namandla elanga

e-China idlale indima ebalulekileyo ekugcineni izinto ezikhutshwayo ezivela kwicandelo lamandla elizwe ngaphantsi kwe-20% kunokuba bezinokwenza.

kungenjalo ibe.Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kokukhula okubalulekileyo kwe-China kumthamo wamandla acocekileyo, amandla acocekileyo aya kugubungela kuphela i-46%

yemfuno entsha yombane ngo-2023, namalahle asagubungela i-53%.

Unyaka wama-2024 uya kuba ngunyaka obalulekileyo eTshayina ukufikelela kwincopho yokukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo kushishino lwamandla.Ngenxa yesantya kunye nesikali

wokwakhiwa kwamandla acocekileyo eTshayina, ngakumbi umoya kunye namandla elanga, iChina inokuba sele ifikelele kwincopho ye

ukukhutshwa kwecandelo lamandla ngo-2023 okanye kuya kufikelela kweli nqanaba liphambili ngo-2024 okanye ngo-2025.

Ukongeza, ngelixa i-China yenze inkqubela phambili ekuphuhliseni amandla acocekileyo kunye nokomeleza uqoqosho lwayo, imingeni

kuhlala njengoko amandla ekhabhoni okwenziwa kombane eTshayina ahlala ephezulu kunomndilili wehlabathi.Oku kuqaqambisa

imfuneko yemizamo eqhubekayo yokwandisa amandla acocekileyo.

Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yeentsingiselo zehlabathi, i-trajectory yophuhliso lwase-China kwicandelo lamandla ibumba i-transi yehlabathi.tion

kumandla acocekileyo.Ukukhula okukhawulezayo kumoya kunye namandla elanga kwenze iChina yaba ngumdlali ophambili kwimpendulo yehlabathi kwintlekele yemozulu.

Ngo-2023, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kunye nomoya waseTshayina kuya kubalelwa kwi-37% yokuveliswa kwamandla ehlabathi, kunye nokubaswa kwamalahle.

ukuveliswa kwamandla kuya kwenza ngaphezu kwesiqingatha samandla ombane ehlabathi.Ngo-2023, i-China iya kuphendula ngakumbi

ngaphezu kwesiqingatha somoya omtsha wehlabathi kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla elanga.Ngaphandle kokukhula kokuveliswa kwamandla omoya kunye nelanga

ukususela ngo-2015, ukukhutshwa kwecandelo lamandla e-China kuya kunyuka nge-21% ngo-2023.

UChristina Figueres, owayesakuba nguNobhala we-UNFCCC, wathi: "Ixesha le-fossil fuel lifikelele kwindawo eyimfuneko nengenakuphepheka.

ekupheleni, njengoko iziphumo zengxelo zenza kucace.Eli lithuba elibalulekileyo lokuguqula: inkulungwane yokugqibela Itekhnoloji ephelelwe lixesha engakwaziyo

Ukukhuphisana ixesha elide kunye nokuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha kunye nexabiso elihlayo lejika lamandla ahlaziyekayo kunye nokugcinwa kuya kwenza konke

thina kunye nesijikelezi-langa esiphila kuso ngcono ngenxa yoko.”